Welcome to the Website, I will be occasionally writing about interesting weather events, seasonal forecasts and anything else weather related. The site is currently still a work in progress so what is seen and what will be here will change. For now I have put the basics, some quick links to some important pages as well some cool photos I've taken throughout the years. I thought I might write about something interesting today as a a day one special, however, they aren't that many interesting weather events currently going on. Instead, I'll just show off the graph I made yesterday night on Hurricane ACE from 1950 till today and talk about it. Here we can see the hurricane ACE of each individual season in blue and the 5 and 10 year moving average in red and yellow respectively. There are a few things that come to mind when looking at this chart. First of all we can see active periods and the inactive periods quite easily when looking at the moving averages. We can see that both the 5 and 10 moving averages went below 100 for most of the 70s and 80s denoting an inactive/cold period for the Atlantic. On the flip side we see that in the 50s/60s as well as since the mid 90s it has been mostly above 100. This coincides nicely with what we saw in 1995 when the Hurricane ACE was over 200 which corresponded with beginning of the current active period. Something to note is that numbers in the 50s and 60s may be a little lower than what they actually represent due to underreporting due to the lack of proper satellite imagery and some cases the complete lack of imagery. So that means the numbers prior to 1970 may be higher than what the graph shows. CSU released their April Prediction for the upcoming Hurricane season and they're predicting that we should quite active season ahead with ACE around 150 which would more than what we saw in the last two years. They are predicting for 16 named storms, 8 Hurricanes, and 4 Major Hurricanes this season. The average for each of those values are 12 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 3 Major Hurricanes for a normal season. My own prediction is somewhere in the range of 14-18 Named Storms, 7-10 Hurricanes and 3-5 Major Hurricanes, which is fairly similar to what CSU has predicted. I may make my own forecast in the coming future so stay tune for that in future blog posts.
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AuthorHello, my name is Kaylan. I'm currently a sophomore at the University of Wisconsin studying Atmospheric and Oceanic Science. I have had a passion in the weather for as long as I can remember and hope to continue it into the future. Archives
December 2020
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